Republican Senators Play the Local Card
By Siobhan Hughes And Kristina Peterson
LIMA, Ohio—Vulnerable Senate Republicans have decided 2016 is a good year to be running as if for sheriff, focused on hyperlocal issues that might create some distance with the candidate at the top of the ticket—and perhaps help the party keep control of the chamber.
Ohio Sen. Rob Portman touts his work fighting algae blooms in Lake Erie. New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte has cast critical votes to protect federal regulations curbing power-plant emissions, which waft into New Hampshire from Midwestern coal-fired power plants. Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey has been promoting his support for local police officers.
With control of the Senate up for grabs, there are early indications the strategy might be working, despite Democratic attempts to tie their rivals to GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump. Entering the final stretch, most Senate Republicans in the tightest races are polling better against their Democratic challengers than Mr. Trump is against Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in their states.
The Senate candidates are campaigning on issues that carry specific weight among their local constituencies, such
as drug addiction, unemployment, health and environmental concerns, in ways that sometimes bring them into conflict with party orthodoxy.
Republicans are hoping Americans wil] be more willing in 2016 to split their ballots and vote for a GOP senator even if not for the party's presidential nominee. In the past two presidential elections, winners of Senate races have often had a margin of victory that closely tracked their states' presidential results.
It may not be enough. Republicans are defending 24 seats, compared with 10 for Democrats. To maintain Senate control, Republicans can lose no more than three net seats—four if Mr. Trump wins the presidency, as the vice president breaks tie votes in the Senate.
"If s imperative for a Senate candidate to break through the noise and the clutter of the Trump circus," said Scott Reed, senior political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which is spending millions this year to keep Republicans from losing the Senate, "and the best way to do that is to localize their election."
The strategy is condoned by the party's top executives. "We're running for Senate, we're not running for president," Ward Baker, executive director of the Senate Republicans' campaign arm, said at the GOP convention in July. "We try to take everything at the sheriff level on local issues."
A spokeswoman for Mr. Trump's campaign didn't reply to a request for comment.
One senator working particularly hard to build a personal brand, rather than touting party identity, is Mr. Portman, who is ahead of his Democratic rival by seven points, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls as of Wednesday morning. He courts retired coal miners with promises to try to shore up their union-sponsored pensions. He has donned hard hats at Ohio factories and touted his work to prevent a guardrail manufacturer from going out of business.
Last month. Mr. Portman, who is seeking federal funds to combat an opioid crisis, sat
in a small-town convention center scribbling notes as recovering heroin addicts described what it would take to address the deadly problem.
"I think he is addressing my issues—I think he's on the same team," said Reggie Gant, a 47-year-old former addict who says he will vote for Mr. Portman but can't say the same thing for Mr. Trump.
In Florida, Sen. Marco Ru-bio has bucked his party and is calling for almost $2 billion to combat Zika in his state. In Arizona, Sen. John McCain has been working on plans to conserve water to respond to a yearslong drought.
While pushing local issues, GOP Senate candidates have also often distanced themselves from Mr. Trump, skipping his events in their home states and criticizing him on some issues.
Democrats say Republicans can't untether themselves from Mr. Trump because so many have said they would vote for him. "Even if they try to," said Lauren Passalacqua, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, "they've been caught on camera."
In Pennsylvania, when Mr. Toomey visited a collision-repair store last week, environmental activists showed up with an 8-foot friendship bracelet and signs labeling him and Mr. Trump "best friends forever."
Mr. Toomey said "voters are going to make a completely separate judgment about who they want in the White House and who they want in the Senate, so I'm not concerned about that"
For other incumbents, the strategy of separating from Mr. Trump isn't working or hasn't been fully implemented. In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson, who is campaigning on the theme that the GOP has a stronger national-security record, is performing worse than Mr. Trump in polls. Illinois Sen. Mark Kirk has publicly rescinded his endorsement of Mr. Trump; there are no poll numbers on his race, but nonpartisan analysts
consider him vulnerable.
Voters who split their votes for president and down-ballot candidates hit a 52-year low in 2012—12% in Senate races—according to data compiled by American National Election Studies. This year could be different because both major-party presidential nominees are viewed negatively and third-party candidates such as Gary Johnson and Jill Stein may siphon votes from both, said Robert Blizzard, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies and a GOP strategist involved in fundraising for Senate Republicans in states including Ohio and Florida.
Running locally focused races has led the four Senate Republicans whose polling performance most exceeds Mr. Trump's—Mr. Portman, Ms. Ayotte, Mr. Rubio and Mr. Toomey—to split with their party.
Mr. Toomey, whose state leans left, bucked the party and the National Rifle Association to support expanding gun-sales background checks. It earned him endorsements from the political arm of former Democratic Rep. Gabby Giffords's gun-control group and the political-action committee founded by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Pennsylvania voters have been willing in the past to split their tickets: in 2008, GOP state Attorney General Tom Corbett won with 52% of the state's vote, while Barack Obama won the state with almost 55% support.
Ms. Ayotte can point to her environmental record as a sign of independence, including her votes to protect Environmental Protection Agency regulations curbing power-plant emissions. The League of Conservation Voters, an environmental group that frequently backs Democrats, is staying out of the New Hampshire Senate race
Mr. Toomey and Ms. Ayotte, are down against their Democratic opponents by one percentage point each, according to the latest Real Clear Politics average of polls. That is still better than Mr. Trump, who is seven points behind Mrs. Clinton in Pennsylvania and nine points behind in New Hampshire.
"Some senators can outrun the top of the ticket by a few" percentage points, said Sen. Jeff Flake (R., Ariz.), who isn't up for re-election. "It's tough to outrun it by 10."