Poll Clintons Lead Shrinks
Democratic nominee holds 6-point edge among likely voters; turnout may be an issue
By Janet Hook
Hillary Clinton is maintaining her edge over Republican rival Donald Trump despite recent campaign setbacks, but the 2016 presidential race continues to tighten going into the homestretch, a new Wall Street Joumal/NBC News poll has found.
After a rocky week of controversy over her health and for calling some of Mr. Trumps supporters "deplorables," the Democratic nominee leads Mr. Trump by 6 percentage points, 43% tc 37%, among people likely to vote, the survey found. Two third-party candidates drew 12% support.
It is the first Joumal/NBC News survey this year to focus on the opinions of people likely to vote. Among all registered voters, a slightly broader group than those designated as likely voters, Mrs. Clinton leads by 5 percentage points, narrower than her 9-point lead in the August Joumal/NBC News survey.
Mrs. Clinton still is viewed negatively by a majority of voters. She faces broad cruestions about her honesty and is at risk of not drawing the levels of black and Hispanic support that Democratic President Barack Obama did in 2012.
Her ability to weather controversy and hold on to a polling lead has been bolstered by some of Mr. Trumps weaknesses, the poll found. Mr. Trump is still viewed more negatively than she is, and has struggled to reach beyond his core support among white voters without college degrees.
Another factor helping Mrs. Clinton is that Mr. Obamas job-approval rating has been on the rise in recent months.
The result is a race that remains remarkably stable after a campaign that has seemedlike a roller-coaster ride, yank-ing voters attention from one imbroglio to the next. Most recently, it has focused on ques-tions about Mrs. Clintons health and Mr. Trump retract-ing his long-held doubts about Mr. Obamas citizenship.
The survey was taken Sept 16-19, after those controversies generated news headlines and before the recent bombing incidents in and near New York.
Democratic pollster Fred Yang, who conducted the survey with Republican Bill Mclnturff, said Mr. Trump has been hindered by his comments about women, immigrants and Muslims, which are viewed negatively by white women and white, college-educated voters, two groups from which he needs strong support to win.
Mr. Mclnturff said Mr. Trump may need a game-chang-ing campaign moment to shakehis Democratic rivals lead. "For him to get from where he is to winning, something-some spark, something that hasnt happened-would have to happen," he said.
One measure of the hurdles Mr. Trump still faces He is losing to Mrs. Clinton, 42% to 37%, among college-educated white voters-a big bloc that GOP candidates traditionally win. In 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Rom-ney won those voters by 14 percentage points.
Potential threats to Mrs. Clinton include signs that support and enthusiasm among Af-rican-American and Hispanic voters are waning. Those voters arent gravitating to Mr. Trump, suggesting they could stay home or vote for third-party candidates, whose impact on the race remains a wild card.
Iibertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson drew 9% among
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.likely voters in the new survey, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein drew3%. Their support among minorities reduced Mrs. Clintons share of the African-American vote to 76%-still a huge edge over Mr. Trumps 5%, but short of the 93% that Mr. Obama won in 2012.
The poll also found that younger voters, a key Democratic constituency, are far less interested in the election than are other age groups and voting blocs. Asked to rate their interest in the election on a scale of 1 to 10, only half the voters under 35 ranked their interest as a 9 or 10. Overall, 68% of all registered voters ranked their interest that high.
Young voters are also among those most likely to support third party candidates 17% of voters under age 35 support Mr. Johnson; 5% of them support Ms. Stein.
Democratic nominee holds 6-point edge among likely voters; turnout may be an issue
By Janet Hook
Hillary Clinton is maintaining her edge over Republican rival Donald Trump despite recent campaign setbacks, but the 2016 presidential race continues to tighten going into the homestretch, a new Wall Street Joumal/NBC News poll has found.
After a rocky week of controversy over her health and for calling some of Mr. Trumps supporters "deplorables," the Democratic nominee leads Mr. Trump by 6 percentage points, 43% tc 37%, among people likely to vote, the survey found. Two third-party candidates drew 12% support.
It is the first Joumal/NBC News survey this year to focus on the opinions of people likely to vote. Among all registered voters, a slightly broader group than those designated as likely voters, Mrs. Clinton leads by 5 percentage points, narrower than her 9-point lead in the August Joumal/NBC News survey.
Mrs. Clinton still is viewed negatively by a majority of voters. She faces broad cruestions about her honesty and is at risk of not drawing the levels of black and Hispanic support that Democratic President Barack Obama did in 2012.
Her ability to weather controversy and hold on to a polling lead has been bolstered by some of Mr. Trumps weaknesses, the poll found. Mr. Trump is still viewed more negatively than she is, and has struggled to reach beyond his core support among white voters without college degrees.
Another factor helping Mrs. Clinton is that Mr. Obamas job-approval rating has been on the rise in recent months.
The result is a race that remains remarkably stable after a campaign that has seemedlike a roller-coaster ride, yank-ing voters attention from one imbroglio to the next. Most recently, it has focused on ques-tions about Mrs. Clintons health and Mr. Trump retract-ing his long-held doubts about Mr. Obamas citizenship.
The survey was taken Sept 16-19, after those controversies generated news headlines and before the recent bombing incidents in and near New York.
Democratic pollster Fred Yang, who conducted the survey with Republican Bill Mclnturff, said Mr. Trump has been hindered by his comments about women, immigrants and Muslims, which are viewed negatively by white women and white, college-educated voters, two groups from which he needs strong support to win.
Mr. Mclnturff said Mr. Trump may need a game-chang-ing campaign moment to shakehis Democratic rivals lead. "For him to get from where he is to winning, something-some spark, something that hasnt happened-would have to happen," he said.
One measure of the hurdles Mr. Trump still faces He is losing to Mrs. Clinton, 42% to 37%, among college-educated white voters-a big bloc that GOP candidates traditionally win. In 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Rom-ney won those voters by 14 percentage points.
Potential threats to Mrs. Clinton include signs that support and enthusiasm among Af-rican-American and Hispanic voters are waning. Those voters arent gravitating to Mr. Trump, suggesting they could stay home or vote for third-party candidates, whose impact on the race remains a wild card.
Iibertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson drew 9% among
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.likely voters in the new survey, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein drew3%. Their support among minorities reduced Mrs. Clintons share of the African-American vote to 76%-still a huge edge over Mr. Trumps 5%, but short of the 93% that Mr. Obama won in 2012.
The poll also found that younger voters, a key Democratic constituency, are far less interested in the election than are other age groups and voting blocs. Asked to rate their interest in the election on a scale of 1 to 10, only half the voters under 35 ranked their interest as a 9 or 10. Overall, 68% of all registered voters ranked their interest that high.
Young voters are also among those most likely to support third party candidates 17% of voters under age 35 support Mr. Johnson; 5% of them support Ms. Stein.
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